Pretty straightforward idea. Have a higher draft selection. Put it to use on a quarterback. In a year or so, begin run of many winning seasons, musical appearances and — hopefully — a Super Bowl success.

That’s the anticipation for the Jacksonville Jaguars this spring. They will have made a decision to move on out of Blake Bortles, also even if they put in a veteran such as Joe Flacco or even Tyrod Taylor or even Ryan Fitzpatrick at no agency to be a bridge mentor and player, they all have to draft a franchise quarterback.

Except… there’s a better-than-good likelihood that the Jaguars will miss on whichever quarterback they choose. That’s not really a shot at executive vice president Tom Coughlin and overall director Dave Caldwell — or whoever is running the organization in April — it’s merely the numbers of the success rate.

There’s nothing written anywhere that defines a franchise quarterback, but a good starting point is a player who creates multiple Pro Bowls and multiple playoff appearances and has just played one team. The thought on that last criterion is that no other team may part ways with a franchise quarterback until close to the conclusion of his livelihood.

Just nine quarterbacks made from 2000 to 2015 match which criteria: tombrady , Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson. Tony Romo also fits that criteria, but he had been a undrafted free agent.

So not counting Romo, just 13 of the 195 quarterbacks — only 6.7 percentage — drafted from 2000 to 2015 made multiple Pro Bowls and multiple movie appearances. Just seven of the 42 quarterbacks — 14 per cent — drafted in the first round over that exact same span qualify: Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan, Newton and Luck.

Add it all up and it’s incredibly hard to find that”franchise” quarterback, though the odds are far better if a team ignites you in the very first round.

“In the end of the day, it’s a proportions game, and also the chances tell you, especially at this point, in case you’re likely to get a 10-year newcomer, a quarterback which will Provide you an Opportunity to make a deep run in the playoffs and win a Super Bowl, it’s unlikely to be in the very first round,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said” … There’s not many [quarterbacks] that are transcendent talents that no matter of encouraging cast, no matter the coaching staff, are definitely going to get success.

“Those are few and far between.”

There may well be no one in the 2019 draft, either. Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins are widely considered the best two quarterbacks in this class — but neither has announced if he is going to likely be leaving school early. And many believe Herbert will return for his senior season. Even if they come out, the quarterback class isn’t regarded as a good one: McShay said he ranks Herbert and Haskins below most of the first-round quarterbacks taken from 20-16 to 2018.

The timing of talent and need perhaps not matching isn’t something new to the Jaguars. They will have been in this situation multiple times all through their history.

Mark Brunell was still a viable starter in 2002 (he threw for 2,788 yards with 17 TDs and seven interceptions) and he and the team were focusing on a fresh contract in spring 2003, before discussions stalled. But fresh GM Shack Harris wanted his or her own guy, and also the Jaguars drafted Byron Leftwich seventh overall.

Had they waited a second season, the Jaguars could have obtained Ben Roethlisberger with the ninth selection in 2004. He moved two choices later into the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He had been a quarterback at Arkansas, however the Jaguars wanted him being a receiver.

The Jaguars drafted Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in 2011, therefore these weren’t believing quarterback at all in 2012, once they took receiver Justin Blackmon fifth entire — he’d alcohol and drug problems and has been out of this league since 2013 — and subsequently took punter Bryan Anger at the next round. Five selections later, the Seattle Seahawks chosen Wilson.

Though Bortles was coming from a devastating season, newly hired Coughlin went with running Leonard Fournette over quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes.

The Jaguars have spent the past 15 seasons attempting to find a replacement for Brunell and have gone by Leftwich, David Garrard, Gabbert now Bortles. They will have had only three playoff appearances over that stretch.

As bad as this sounds, it’s still better than that which the Miami Dolphins have gone in trying to replace Dan Marino. He retired after the 1999 season — a 62-7 playoff loss in Jacksonville had been his final match — and ever since that time, the Dolphins experienced 14 quarterbacks launch 10 or more matches.

The Fins have hailed just one in the very first round, though: Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill has turned into a good player. He ranks third in franchise history supporting Marino and Bob Griese in passing yards (20,141) and touchdown passes (122) and contains a better completion percentage (62.8) and interception percentage (2.5) than either.

However, Tannehill also has missed 25 matches out of 20-16 through this season as a result of injuries, has handled only one playoff appearance since being drafted eighth overall in 2012 and can be 42-44 as a beginner. He is having fun with a shoulder injury which kept him out of the lineup for five matches earlier this season, and there’s absolutely no guarantee he’ he ll return in Miami in 2019, although he conveys a $13.4 million bomb cap hit if the Dolphins discharge him before June 1.

If that happens, that the Dolphins will unite with the Jaguars and New York Giants as teams in hunt of this NFL’s next franchise stinks.

Excellent luck.

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