We know that who will probably be top of the Premier League on Christmas Day, but is it all great news for Liverpool?

Saturday attracted a rare home defeat for Manchester City, but what does the data reveal concerning Crystal Palace’s “bonanza afternoon”?

And as for Burnley boss Sean Dyche, the weekend watched one unwelcome run continue into a remarkable 61st match.

A Red Christmas: reasons to become blue?

In eight of the previous ten seasons, the European leaders on 25 December have moved onto win the Premier League title.

One team provides both the 2 exceptions. Could you guess that?

At the 2008-09 season, Liverpool were one point clear of Chelsea on 25 December, together with Manchester United in third, six points . They wound up finishing 2nd, falling out to United by four things.

Back in 2013-14, the Reds had been before Arsenal on goal difference but wound up losing out to Manchester City by 2 things, as a home defeat by Chelsea and also a draw in Crystal Palace cost them at the last few games of this entire year.

The information behind Palace’s’bonanza afternoon’

Roy Hodgson called it”among these bonanza days”. His Crystal Palace side caused a huge upset at Etihad Stadium, beating defending champions Manchester City 3-2 on Saturday.

However, where does this rank among recent jolt results?

Simon Gleave, mind of sports analysis in grace note, suggests it is actually the largest upset since Manchester United lost at home to Blackburn Rovers on New Year’s Eve at 2011.

He says:”Chances of a Blackburn win at Old Trafford that afternoon were 25-1 in kick off. A Palace win at City on Saturday was a 20-1 shot as it started according to some bookmakers.

“There have already been 10 Premier League matches as the summer of 2003 in that there was a winner with odds of 141 or longer. All were away wins at Arsenal (four days ), Chelsea (double ), Manchester City (double ) or Manchester United (double ).

“West Bromwich Albion will be the sole group to create a jolt of this magnitude twice at the previous 15 seasons – winning 3-2 in Arsenal at 2010-2011 and 1-0 in Manchester United last semester.”

Andros Townsend’s spectacular 30-yard volley had too much to accomplish with Palace’s improbable win, however additionally, it owed a lot to their defensive work, too.

Hodgson’s team did a excellent job of stifling Town – not to the very first time in the last few years.

Simon Gleave again explains longer.

He says:”Based on Gracenote’s expected goals version, City’s goal attempts on Saturday each had an ordinary chance of being scored of only 5.6%. In accordance with our version, City’s goal attempts this season across all games have had an ordinary chance of 14.2% of going in.

“Palace paid off the prospect of their normal City goal effort going in by over 60%. Not only were relatively few opportunities created but those that were had a minimal prospect of being scored.

“This may be actually the next time that teams have restricted the odds of Pep Guardiola team as Roy Hodgson became manager. On New Year’s Eve last season, Palace drew 0-0 with all City in Selhurst Park, overlooking a late penalty which will have affirmed a shock win.

“Similar to Saturday’s game, there was a typical 5.4% possibility of City’s goal attempts going in that match, in contrast to their season average of 13.9%.”

DateOpponentImpactMan City Expected Goals
31 Dec 2016Liverpool (A)L 0-10.40
2 Jan 20 17Burnley (H)W 2-10.44
3-1 Dec 20 17Crystal Palace (A)D 0-00.76
8 Mar 20 17Stoke (H)D 0-00.92
30 Sep 20 17Chelsea (A)W 1-00.95
6 May 2018Huddersfield (H)D 0-00.98
15 Jan 20 17Everton (A)L 0-40.99
4 Mar 2018Chelsea (H)W 1-00.99
13 May 2018Southampton (A)W 1-01.00
2-2 Dec 2018Crystal Palace (H)L 231.01

Maddison leading England’s schemers

Leicester midfielder James Maddison was in impressive shape once more on Saturday, assisting Jamie Vardy’s decisive goal in a 1-0 success at Chelsea.

The 22-year-old has established 41 goalscoring opportunities from the Premier League that season, which places him high in this heap among his fellow English players.

Goalscoring chances created
James Maddison4 1
Raheem Sterling3-1
Andros Townsend2-9
Nathan Redmond26
Solly March24
Callum Wilson2-3
Kieran Trippier2-3
Wilfried Zaha21
James Milner21
Matt Ritchie21

There are only two players who’ve established more chances in the league that season than Leicester’s £20m summer registering from Norwich.

Eden Hazard direct the way in which with 4-8, accompanied by Chelsea teammate Willian with 43, while Fulham’s Jean Michel Seri and Bournemouth’s Scottish winger Ryan Fraser are par with Maddison, having also established 41 opportunities up to now.

Burnley’s long wait Continues on

“The biggest one for me personally, I think it’s 60 games today without a punishment, there is a two-handed push on Kevin Long however, the punishment was not given because he goes naturally,” he told BBC Sport.

It had been Arsenal defender Sead Kolasinac who appeared to drive Burnley defender Long at the box. Dyche was wrong with all his characters though – it has now 6 1 games.

The previous spot kick Burnley were granted came at a 3-1 loss at Everton on 15 April 2017. It had been their sixth punishment given that season, however over the whole of 2017-18 they did not win one one, and they’re awaiting still.

Manchester United and Bournemouth lead the way with six penalties given in 2013 , while last season Crystal Palace chose a division-high 10 spotkicks.

And ultimately: much better festive signals for Liverpool

PL top six

Tottenham’s thrilling 6-2 win at Everton on Sunday affirmed it: 2018-19 is the very first topflight season to see three or more clubs move more than 40 points by Christmas in 33 years.

Not because the 1985-86 campaign has it happened.

The team that travelled onto win the name? Liverpool. They trailed United by four things about 25 December but went onto win by 2 things from Everton.

So perhaps there’s absolutely no good reason for fans of this Anfield club to hold back to the joyous cheer afterall…


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