So far in the 2019 NFL season, banking on the road team has been the way to make money. Road teams are 31-16-1 ATS this season and 24-23-1 outright. It’s the first time since 2006 that road teams have an outright winning record entering Week 4. Road favorites are 10-5 ATS and road underdogs are 21-10-1 ATS.
Looking ahead to this week, don’t look past the 0-3 teams. Since 2015, teams that are 0-3 are 12-2 ATS against teams that entered the game with a win. That trend fits the Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos.
Two of the other big betting storylines so far this season have been the dominance of the New England Patriots and the futility of the Miami Dolphins. Assuming the lines don’t change dramatically, New England will be the first team to be favored by a combined 50 points in its first four games since 1974. Meanwhile, Miami will be the third team since the merger to be an underdog by a combined 60 or more points in its first four games of a season.
Here are some other notable trends for each of the Sunday and Monday games:
All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
• Ron Rivera is 25-15 ATS in his career as a road underdog. Since the start of last season, the Panthers are 3-2 outright as road underdogs, including 2-0 in Kyle Allen‘s career starts. Carolina is also 13-10 outright as an underdog of six or fewer points on the road under Rivera (15-8 ATS).
• Allen seeks to be the second quarterback in the Super Bowl era to begin his career 3-0 despite being an underdog in each game (Patrick Mahomes).
• Last year, Baltimore failed to cover in all five divisional games in which it was the favorite, including both times against Cleveland.
• Lamar Jackson is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
• Since the start of last season, Cleveland is 7-3 ATS after a loss or tie.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3), 1 p.m. ET
• Over the past two seasons, the Giants are 1-7-1 ATS at home. Since 2017, New York is 1-3 outright as a home favorite (0-3-1 ATS).
• Jay Gruden is 19-11 ATS as an underdog of four or fewer points.
• Since the start of the 2013 season, Washington is 2-7 ATS after playing on Monday the previous week, including 2-5 ATS under Gruden.
Los Angeles Chargers (-15.5) at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET
• Teams favored by at least 15 have won 79 of the last 80 games, a stretch that dates to 1995. The one loss came last season when Buffalo upset Minnesota.
• Miami has failed to cover six straight games dating to last season.
• If Miami closes as at least a 13-point underdog, it will have given the second-most points in the first four games of a season since the 1970 merger. Entering this week, Miami was an underdog of a combined 47.5 points over its first three games.
• Miami has won the last eight home meetings (6-2 ATS), including winning and covering all three times against Philip Rivers.
• Oakland is playing its second 1 p.m. ET game in a row. Oakland has failed to cover seven straight games at that time, including going 0-5 ATS under Jon Gruden in his current tenure.
• Oakland is 2-7 ATS on the road since Gruden returned last season.
• Indianapolis is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 games, including the playoffs.
• This is the most points Indianapolis has been favored by in a start by a quarterback other than Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck since 1996.
• Mahomes is 14-7-1 ATS in his career as a starter (13-6-1 ATS in regular season). The over is also 14-7-1 in his starts (13-6-1 regular season). Mahomes is 8-2-1 ATS on the road with nine of the 11 games going over the total.
• Matthew Stafford is 9-16 ATS in his career as a home underdog.
• Kansas City is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season.
New England Patriots (-7) at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET
• Bill Belichick is 14-4-1 ATS at Buffalo as Patriots head coach, including 12-2-1 ATS in his past 15 games and 5-0 ATS in his past five games.
• Last season, New England was 1-5 outright as a single-digit road favorite, including 0-3 outright when favored by 6-9 points on the road.
• This is the 15th time Tom Brady is a road favorite at Buffalo, tying Dan Marino (at Indianapolis) for the most games as a road favorite against a single team by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.
• Buffalo is the seventh team 3-0 or better to be an underdog of at least even points since 2009. The previous six went 1-5 ATS. The Bills are the fourth 3-0 or better team in the Super Bowl era to be a home underdog of at least seven points. The previous three are 3-0 ATS and 2-1 outright, though the last such game came in 1998.
• Atlanta has failed to cover 12 straight games against AFC opponents, including last week’s loss against Indianapolis. The Falcons are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games against AFC opponents, including 4-14 ATS under Dan Quinn. They are 1-10 ATS and 3-13 SU as a favorite against AFC opponents under Quinn.
• Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its past 11 games.
• Marcus Mariota is 19-13-1 ATS when Tennessee is coming off a loss.
• Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games dating back to Week 16 last season (only non-cover came in the Super Bowl). It is 3-0 ATS this season.
• Los Angeles has covered six straight games as a favorite.
• Jameis Winston is 4-0-1 ATS in his last five starts following a Tampa Bay loss.
• Ten of Seattle’s last 12 games went over the total, including the playoffs.
• Seattle is 4-10-1 ATS under Pete Carroll as a road favorite in division games.
• Over the last two seasons, Arizona is 5-0 ATS when underdogs of 3-7 points.
• Regarding the Bears, teams coming off wins on Monday Night Football have failed to cover seven straight games and are 12-20-1 ATS since 2017.
• Minnesota is 2-8-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2016.
• Chicago is 13-3 ATS against Minnesota in the last 16 home meetings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Eight straight Denver games have gone under the total, and the under is 10-1 in Denver’s last 11 games overall. Eight straight Denver home games have also gone under.
• Regarding Denver, since 2015, teams that are 0-3 are 12-2 ATS in their fourth game against teams that have won a game that season.
• Since 2013, Denver is 8-3-2 ATS in home games in September.
• Since becoming Saints coach in 2006, Sean Payton has the best record by a head coach as a home underdog (7-4 straight up). He’s also 9-2 ATS in those games. However, this will be the first time among those games that Payton will be without Drew Brees under center.
• New Orleans has failed to cover five straight home games dating to last season.
• Since 2010, New Orleans is 16-3-1 ATS in home prime time games including the playoffs, though all of those games were started by Brees.
• Teddy Bridgewater is 13-2 ATS in his career as an underdog.
• Dallas is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season.
• Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games, and it has covered six straight road games.
• Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS in his career against Cincinnati, though Ben Roethlisberger started all of those games. He is also 8-1 straight up in prime time matchups against Cincinnati (5-3 ATS).
• Since 2015, Pittsburgh is 4-8 ATS in home division games.